INDO-BANGLADESH - RELATIONSHIP WITH AREA OF CONFLICTS

 

INTRODUCTION

India and Bangladesh share a unique relationship rooted in history, geography, and culture. The partnership, which began with India’s crucial role in Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971, has grown into a multidimensional and strategic alliance. From trade and connectivity to security and water-sharing, the two nations have developed mechanisms for cooperation that underscore their interdependence. With shared borders stretching over 4,000 kilometers and overlapping cultural identities, their relationship significantly impacts the broader South Asian region.

BACKGROUND

The modern state of Bangladesh came into existence in 1971 amid a unique set of circumstances. The use of force by the regime in West Pakistan to suppress a popular Bengali nationalist movement in East Pakistan resulted in a massive influx of refugees to India. After nearly 10 months of brutal violence by the West Pakistani forces, the Indian state eventually intervened militarily in early December, following a pre-emptive attack by the Pakistani air force. The brief conflict that ensued resulted in the creation of Bangladesh, as a secular state under a new constitution. This tumultuous formative process had a profound impact on state-to-state relations between India and Bangladesh.

 

BILATERAL RELATIONS 

A new phase of distancing between Bangladesh and India has been brought on by recent changes in bilateral relationship along their shared border. Although India has traditionally viewed Bangladesh as a significant ally in South Asia, its current steps appear more severe, even punitive. Its displeasure with Dhaka's political shift has been demonstrated by Delhi's employing a range of strategies, including sudden trade restrictions, public demonstrations, and heightened strategic posturing.

 

India appears to be unhappy about the collapse of the Awami League government and the emergence of an interim government led by Dr Muhammad Yunus, despite it being a domestic issue. Delhi now faces a less predictable opponent after years of supporting the previous government. Border pressure, a diplomatic freeze, and trade retaliation seem to be more reactive than proactive.

ECONOMIC  RELATIONS

Over the last 15 years, under the AL government, there were significant achievements on the economic and security front. The government’s pluralistic outlook helped strengthen the relationship with India. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in the subcontinent, and India is Bangladesh’s second biggest trade partner in Asia. Total bilateral trade in FY 2023-24 stood at $14.01 billion, with India importing $1.97 billion worth of goods from Bangladesh. Bangladesh is also India’s 4th top export destination globally. However, the current ferment in the country could hurt Indian exporters, with the shortage of foreign exchange already affecting exports. Last year, Bangladesh had also become the 19th country to sign a rupee trade settlement deal with India. India and Bangladesh had also recently agreed to start negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement soon, and operationalise two Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Mongla and Mirsharai. The two countries have also signed MoUs in 2023 to ease cross-border payment transactions.

 

The power and energy sector has been another significant domain of cooperation. The Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant has been supplying electricity to the Bangladesh grid. The India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline between the two countries for transporting diesel, and offshore oil exploration have been some other avenues of economic cooperation. India provides 11650 MW of electricity to Bangladesh. The Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) terminal set up in Chittagong in 2016 helps not only Bangladesh but also India’s northeastern states.

 

India has also extended Lines of Credit (LOC) to Bangladesh worth around $8 billion for development of infrastructure. The 6th cross-border rail link between Agartala in India and Akhaura in Bangladesh was inaugurated on 1st November 2023. The Haldibari (India) - Chilahati (Bangladesh) renovated rail link was operationalised in 2021. Road and inland water connectivity has also seen considerable activity. India has also operationalized the agreement for the usage of Chittagong and Mongla Ports in 2023. All of this is important from trade perspective as also for improving connectivity with India’s north east, reducing dependence on the long, narrow, congested Siliguri Corridor.

PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE TIES

There exist deep historical, cultural, and religious ties between the people of the two countries. In the past 15 years, there has been a steady increase in Bangladeshi tourists visiting India. Visitors from Bangladesh make up around 23% of India’s total inbound tourists. Meanwhile, Indian visitors are critical to Bangladesh’s tourism sector, accounting for just under half of all foreign visitors to the country in 2023.

 

Tourism and medical treatment are the biggest reasons attracting Bangladeshis to India. The demand for Indian medical visas is the highest, through a highly liberalised process that has been extended uniquely to Bangladesh. India is the top destination for Bangladeshi citizens.

REGIONAL ALLIANCES

India and Bangladesh are part of regional cooperative frameworks like SAARC, BIMSTEC, and BBIN, and IORA and play a crucial role in their functioning. Together they promote collective security and regional integration. Formed in 1985, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has come a long way. With both countries; joint efforts, “GSAT-9,” also known as the SAARC Satellite, was launched in 2017 to provide telecommunication, tele-education, and weather alerts services. They have strongly supported endeavors like the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). Bangladesh often plays a mediation role to lower tensions among member states of SAARC.

 

AREA OF CONFLICTS

·       Political Shifts in Bangladesh : One of the most significant factors influencing the future of India-Bangladesh relations will be the political landscape in Bangladesh after Hasina. Her leadership has been largely unchallenged, but the opposition, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and other political forces, has often criticized her administration for its authoritarian tendencies. If the opposition were to come to power, the tone of Bangladesh's foreign policy, including its relationship with India, could shift. A change in leadership may lead to a reevaluation of the priorities that have defined the relationship over the last decade, especially if the new government favors a more independent or less India-centric approach.

 

·       Rise of Anti-India Sentiment: Despite economic ties, public perception has soured due to perceived Indian interference in Bangladesh’s internal politics. In the months prior to Hasina’s exit, there was a rather vociferous “India Out” campaign fuelled by opposition forces and social media influencers in the country. Public protests, slogans like 'Delhi or Dhaka: Dhaka, Dhaka,' and campaigns such as 'India Out' reflect deep-rooted mistrust.

·       Illegal Migration: Illegal immigration from Bangladesh continues to strain India’s northeastern states, causing socio-economic and political tensions. The Rohingya refugee crisis has further complicated the issue. Persistent issues of cross-border terrorism, insurgency support, and trafficking remain with Insurgent groups like United Liberation Front of Assam have reportedly operated camps in Border regions.

 

·       Water Sharing Disputes– There are 54 rivers along the borders of India and Bangladesh, and mainly the Teesta River has been an area of concern. River water disputes have repercussions on agriculture and related occupations. Bangladesh has put forward a demand to have 50% of the Teesta’s water during December – March, which is a dry season in Bangladesh. West Bengal has opposed this proposal as it is concerned that it will impact its water requirement. The usage of the Ganga River is regulated by the Ganges Water Treaty signed in 1996. This 30-year water-sharing agreement between both states has till now proved successful but is badly affected by fluctuating flow of water during scarcity seasons. At other times, silt and sand accumulate in the riverbeds, leading to reduced water flow and navigation issues. India sometimes fails to share upstream data, which makes it difficult for Bangladesh to forecast flood levels and manage water assets efficiently. Bangladesh is also opposed to India's plans to build the Tapaimukh Dam on the Barak River in Manipur and to interlinking the rivers.

 

·       Cross broder terrorism and smuggling : Recently, Pakistan's ISI has been looking for a stronghold in Bangladesh to further its plans to destabilize India. Because of their vulnerabilities, Rohingyas can be a simple target for the ISI in its efforts to radicalize innocent youth. Similarly, according to media sources, even local Jamaat-e-Islami activists have been contacted by ISI.

·TThe problem of drug trafficking is another major challenge for India Bangladesh relations. According to a 2007 report by the International Narcotics Control Board, Bangladesh is a key transit country for heroin being transported from South Asia to Europe. The INCB data lists drug trafficking through India as one of the popular methods. Cattle smuggling has become rampant in recent times. Border Security Force (BSF) of India and the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) often clash resulting in border killings at times.

 

 Chinese Influence : Bangladesh's largest trading partner and primary source of imports are China. 97% of imports from Bangladesh are currently subject to zero duty in China. This concession came about as a result of China's duty-free and quota-free policy for Least Developed Countries.

Bangladesh receives the majority of its weapons from China. Bangladesh recently purchased two Chinese submarines and two frigates. Bangladesh’s biggest arm supplier is China. It has also invested over $7 billion in Bangladesh, and its exports to China in 2023 were over $22 billion. China has evinced interest in the Teesta river conservation project. China, the second largest provider of foreign aid for Bangladesh, has shown a lot of interest in developing the southern part of Bangladesh in terms of infrastructure, disaster and climate change resilience, and economic development of the southern deltaic region. It is, therefore, imperative from a geopolitical perspective for India to preserve and deepen its relationship with Bangladesh.

 

·       Menace of Biased Reporting- Despite the strong ties; distortion of facts by the media creates confusion in both the countries. Sometimes, small conflicts are presented as major disputes, while other time, only one side of the event is covered. It influences the perception of masses at both the sides of borders and leads to lack of public trust. For example, on the issue of illegal migration, Bangladeshi media reports Indian response, as unnecessarily aggressive, while the Indian media exaggerates the scale of people illegally crossing the borders without mentioning the proper causes for the migration.

   Current Status of INDO - BANGLADESH Relationship 

The bilateral relationship of India and Bangladesh stands at crossroads today. The anti-India elements are gaining ground, as witnessed in attacks on Hindu temples in Bangladesh. Recently, India has backed out from a trans-shipment facility that permitted exports from Bangladesh to enter other countries through Indian borders.  

The recent political developments in Bangladesh threaten its social, political and economic  stability. This is a cause of concern for India because a stable and economically thriving Bangladesh has proved to be its strongest ally in the immediate neighbourhood. Moreover, the strong anti-India sentiment within some sections of the society and the political class have further put a strain on India-Bangladesh relations. This hurts India’s economic, security and geopolitical interests.

 

CONCLUSION

The relationship between India and Bangladesh, shaped by decades of shared history, cultural connections, and political complexities, has undergone significant transformation under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership. Her tenure has been marked by a focus on cooperation, peace-building, and strengthening bilateral ties across key areas such as trade, security, and cultural diplomacy. The Land Boundary Agreement (LBA), security collaborations, and robust economic exchanges are just a few examples of the progress made under Hasina’s leadership, setting a strong foundation for future diplomatic efforts.

 

However, the post-Hasina era will present both challenges and opportunities for India-Bangladesh relations. A potential shift in Bangladesh’s domestic political landscape could lead to new diplomatic approaches, which may challenge India’s influence in the region, especially as Bangladesh deepens its ties with China. Border security concerns, geopolitical realignments, and water-sharing disputes are likely to remain key issues in the years to come. Ultimately, the future of India-Bangladesh relations will depend on both nations’ ability to adapt to changing political dynamics while maintaining their long-standing historical ties.